Drop in Imports from China Depresses Coal Prices; Indonesian Miners Seeking Other Markets

first_img FacebookTwitterLinkedInEmailPrint分享Deepak Kannan in Platts Coal Trader International: Several large Indonesian thermal coal miners continue to forecast stable to higher production targets for 2016 despite weakening demand in both India and China, putting downward pressure on prices.Indonesian coal suppliers have been hit by a significant drop in Chinese imports of thermal coal and increasing domestic output in India.“China import demand for the thermal coal is expected to continue to decline over the medium term,” said Tim Buckley, director of Energy Finance Studies at the US-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. Coal production in China fell about 6.8% in the first four months of 2016 from the same period last year, while thermal power generation was down 3.2% over the same period.“All are very negative trends in terms of falling demand from China, and a likely increase in China looking at export opportunities,” Buckley said.China, which produces about 4 billion mt/year of coal, lowered its export tax to 3% from 10% early last year, fueling speculation the country might look to become a net exporter in the near to medium term.Global seaborne thermal coal demand is seen declining 25% by 2020 from 2014 peak volumes, Buckley noted.Goldman Sachs analysts expect seaborne trade to contract by 10% over 2015-2020.Indian imports fell about 19% year on year in the first four months of 2016. For fiscal year 2015-2016, Indian imports, including metallurgical and thermal coal, were down 15% to 182 million mt.“IEEFA expects Indian import demand for thermal coal to continue to decline at 10-20% year on year rates over the coming year, considering the comments from NTPC Ltd, the biggest user of coal in India, saying they will not import any thermal coal in next 12 months,” Buckley noted.Full article: http://www.platts.com/latest-news/coal/singapore/analysis-large-indonesian-coal-miners-to-maintain-27582801 Drop in Imports from China Depresses Coal Prices; Indonesian Miners Seeking Other Marketslast_img read more

DNV GL consultants: Global oil demand will peak in 2022

first_imgDNV GL consultants: Global oil demand will peak in 2022 FacebookTwitterLinkedInEmailPrint分享Reuters:Global oil demand will peak in three years, plateau until around 2030 and then decline sharply, energy adviser DNV GL said in one of the most aggressive forecasts yet for peak oil.Most oil companies expect demand to peak between the late 2020s and the 2040s. The International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises Western economies on energy policy, does not expect a peak before 2040, with rising petrochemicals and aviation demand more than offsetting declining oil demand for road transportation.“The main reason for forecasting peak oil demand in the early 2020s is our strong belief in the uptake of electric vehicles, as well as a less bullish belief in the growth of petrochemicals,” Sverre Alvik, head of DNV GL’s Energy Transition Outlook (ETO), said in an email to Reuters.While DNV GL’s latest forecast shows oil demand peaking in 2022, one year sooner than it estimated last year, the difference is marginal and demand is expected to remain relatively flat over the 2020-2028 period, Alvik added.Demand for natural gas, which oil companies say could serve as a bridge in the global transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, is seen surpassing oil demand in 2026 and plateauing in 2033, DNV GL said.Meanwhile, electricity’s share of the total energy mix is predicted to double by mid-century to 40% of today’s levels, with solar and wind generation accounting for two-thirds of electricity output. Annual power grid spending is forecast to more than double to $1.7 trillion to connect thousands of new solar and wind farms and millions of electric vehicles.More: Oil demand to peak in three years, says energy adviser DNV GLlast_img read more