Drop in Imports from China Depresses Coal Prices; Indonesian Miners Seeking Other Markets

first_img FacebookTwitterLinkedInEmailPrint分享Deepak Kannan in Platts Coal Trader International: Several large Indonesian thermal coal miners continue to forecast stable to higher production targets for 2016 despite weakening demand in both India and China, putting downward pressure on prices.Indonesian coal suppliers have been hit by a significant drop in Chinese imports of thermal coal and increasing domestic output in India.“China import demand for the thermal coal is expected to continue to decline over the medium term,” said Tim Buckley, director of Energy Finance Studies at the US-based Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis. Coal production in China fell about 6.8% in the first four months of 2016 from the same period last year, while thermal power generation was down 3.2% over the same period.“All are very negative trends in terms of falling demand from China, and a likely increase in China looking at export opportunities,” Buckley said.China, which produces about 4 billion mt/year of coal, lowered its export tax to 3% from 10% early last year, fueling speculation the country might look to become a net exporter in the near to medium term.Global seaborne thermal coal demand is seen declining 25% by 2020 from 2014 peak volumes, Buckley noted.Goldman Sachs analysts expect seaborne trade to contract by 10% over 2015-2020.Indian imports fell about 19% year on year in the first four months of 2016. For fiscal year 2015-2016, Indian imports, including metallurgical and thermal coal, were down 15% to 182 million mt.“IEEFA expects Indian import demand for thermal coal to continue to decline at 10-20% year on year rates over the coming year, considering the comments from NTPC Ltd, the biggest user of coal in India, saying they will not import any thermal coal in next 12 months,” Buckley noted.Full article: http://www.platts.com/latest-news/coal/singapore/analysis-large-indonesian-coal-miners-to-maintain-27582801 Drop in Imports from China Depresses Coal Prices; Indonesian Miners Seeking Other Marketslast_img read more